The biggest myth in the NHL today?

Well, it's that time of year again - the time for my yearly post about my beloved Habs.

So what has riled me up enough to compel me to write another long-winded post? Well, for some reason I've been in a hyperactive state since yesterday, and this morning I woke up at 4 AM today ready to solve all the world's problems. Where do I start? Meh...let's forget about the world and talk hockey. There are a few irritants (ill-advised signings by the GM, player mismanagement by the coach, unaddressed size concerns ahead of the playoffs), but generally speaking, the team is looking promising this year and they're currently playing some very good hockey.

PK Subban is having another fine season. He should be a lock to make Team Canada, and is making a strong case with his play to warrant a prominent role on the team's first pairing. However, not everyone in the Canadian media is convinced. Some people even suggest he should be left off the team, which seems like lunacy to me. Normally, I wouldn't care what some people suggest. The problem is that there is a lot of noise that some pretty important hockey people feel that way. Is it just noise? Maybe. I hope so. 

Alas, I'm not so sure. In fact, well-respected NHL insiders like TSN's Bob McKenzie have often suggested that the Team Canada brass sees PK as a bubble player, possibly a player on the outside looking in. Apparently, PK is not reliable. Apparently, PK is a talented offensive d-man, and could help the PP, sure, but he has too many defensive shortcomings for Team Canada. Apparently, PK is too much of a risky player. Too many turnovers. Too many spin-o-ramas. An uncontrollable entity. Impossible to harness for a coach in such a short tournament. Impossible for partnering d-men to adapt to in a short tournament. Too volatile. A risky asset. If he were was a stock on the TSX, his beta would 3.5, which is much too high for Team Canada's conservative fund managers.

The problem is that these arguments are all predicated upon quite possibly the biggest myth in the NHL today. The myth that PK Subban is not a good defensive d-man in this league.

I propose we take a trip down memory lane. 

Let me start with this statement:

PK Subban was a much better defensive d-man than an offensive one when he came into the league. 

Under Jacques Martin, PK was our most reliable defensive d-man. Jacques Martin understood that and gave him monster minutes. PK played on the PK. PK played nearly 30 minutes for many games under Jacques Martin. In fact, when he first came into the league and was thrust into the limelight after his amazing rookie season in the AHL to play in the 2009-2010 playoffs, PK was the guy that Martin used to neutralize the two best players in the game: Crosby and Ovechkin.

I will repeat: as a rookie with 2 NHL regular season games under his belt, Jacques Martin decided to use PK Subban to neutralize the game's two best players in the NHL playoffs. 

Since day one, he has been beyond elite at neutralizing the game's best players when he has been given the assignment to do so.

In his first two full-time NHL seasons under Jacques Martin, he confirmed that was already among the league's best defensive d-men, and was utilized as such. He was always elite without the puck. The way he covers the opposition, the way he always leverages his thick frame to position his body between the puck carrier and the net, the way he threatens oncoming forwards due to his hitting ability and physical presence to keep them honest, the way he recovers the puck down low and separates the opposition from puck & net were always elite. His main weakness was his decision-making with the puck in the defensive end. Holding on to the puck too long. Making the risky pass. Poor decision-making at times, coupled with some issues with game management (knowing when is the opportune time to take risks). Sure, PK makes errors. He makes fewer errors today, but he still makes mistakes occasionally. But hey - every d-man makes errors. Key in on the guys with the best defensive reputations. Watch them closely. They all make errors at times. No d-man is perfect. 

It is his offensive game that was deficient (related to his only defensive weakness). You could tell he had the tools: amazing skater, booming shot, creativity. The main problem was his poor decision-making. He would often make the wrong play: shoot instead of pass, pass instead of shoot. He would often try to pulverize the puck and miss the net, instead of holding back, harnessing his power, taking some off it, and hitting the net. 

That being said, PK is a very, very, VERY smart kid. You could see him improve from day to day. He is a student of the game. He puts in tons of video time. I was amazed at his progression. Slowly but surely, he was improving his offensive game by leaps and bounds. He was hitting the net. He was more confident rushing the puck up the ice at the right time. He was making great passes. He was becoming the complete package. 

This rapid ascension attributable more to his intelligence than his natural abilities (we have seen too many players with all the tools fail because they didn't have a toolbox) culminated with his Norris-winning season last year. It is his offensive game that caught up to his defensive game. Total package. Elite. Even his game management is much improved now. He undoubtedly became one of the top 5 overall NHL d-men in the game. In my book, he is the #1 overall d-man in the game. There are a few who might be slightly better defensively, a few who might be slightly better offensively, but none who offer a better overall package. None. 

The numbers prove it. There are many hockey stat geeks who have proven that PK is the most dominant d-man in the league. This excellent article by Andrew Berkshire (http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2014-sochi-olympics/2013/12/3/5172530/how-does-p-k-subban-compare-to-other-team-canada-defense-hopefuls) is just one example of the numbers showing how PK compares to the other Team Canada hopefuls. And there are many other stats that show that PK is better defensively than every other Team Canada hopeful.

PK Subban is possibly the best d-man in the league at 24 years of age. The Habs are lucky to have him. And I'm ecstatic and thankful to be able to watch him every game - it was such a treat to see him evolve so quickly, and for the first time in many years I'm excited about this team. I think we finally have a guy who can lead our team to winning our first cup since 1993. He is our first unquestionably truly elite player in years. PK is simply one of the best players in the league. Period.

I love the Habs, and I love Canada. But if PK is left off Team Canada, I will cheer against them. To leave arguably the best overall d-man in the league off the team would be criminal, whatever the reason is (stigma about d-men who score lots of points being necessarily weak defensively, dislike for his ''flashy'' style, ill-advised perception about him being risky and a poor game manager, predisposed bias against individuals producing higher melanin which often leads to darker skin pigmentation, etc.).

2013 Habs: Forward position

It only took me six months since my last post to finally get to talking about the Habs forwards on the 2013 team. It bodes very well for the update frequency of this blog moving forward.

Let's take a look at the potential forwards on this year's team:

Centers: Desharnais, Plekanec, Eller, Nokelainen, Galchenyuk
Wingers: Pacioretty, Cole, Bourque, Gionta, Moen, Prust, Armstrong, White, Blunden, Gallagher

At first glance, it's very clear that this year's team has very little offensive flair compared to last season's team, which didn't have all that much flair to begin with. We essentially swapped Gomez, Kostitsyn, Cammalleri with Bourque, Prust and Armstrong. We have less offensive flair, but more grit now. We practically no longer have any puck possession players (Eller and Galchenyuk are the only guys who could play a puck possession game - which will make it difficult for Galchenyuk to truly shine with this year's edition).

Accordingly, I suppose that Michel Therrien's proposed offensive strategy and more direct north-south approach is consistent with the tools at his disposal. There is nothing innovative about Michel Therrien. He is primarily a motivator who will try to get the best out of his troops by preaching hard work. This season's Habs will work hard - of that, I have little doubt. However, I also expect the Habs scoring struggles to continue, and I also expect that the team will play some of the most boring hockey in the NHL. Send the puck deep, crash and bang in the corners, crash the net. It isn't always entertaining, but it can be effective. Unfortunately, a quick comparison with other teams will reflect how little talent we have at the forward position compared to real contenders. As I mentioned in a prior post, our wingers are much older (and less exciting) than the wingers you would find on a contending team. Cole and Gionta are declining assets. Cole will have a hard time to match last year's anomalous production. Gionta should no longer be a top-six player, and would be best served as a 3rd line winger. Bourque is no spring chicken, but he seems more motivated this year, and may still be a useful player if he gets top-six minutes and power play time. Armstrong, Prust, Moen, Blunden, Nokelainen and White are incapable of providing regular offense. Gallagher is redundant on a team with Gionta. Basically, the only potentially dynamic offensive forwards on the team are Desharnais, Plekanec, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk and Eller. It is difficult to roll out 3 offensive lines when you only really have 5 dynamic offensive forwards. Heck, it's difficult to roll out 2 offensive lines. I look at a team like the St-Louis Blues with tremendous envy - they have several good, young dynamic forwards.

Alas, the Habs are organizationally devoid of such depth. One of the few potentially entertaining and promising young players on this year's team is Lars Eller. While it may be premature to jump to conclusions, it would appear as though Michel Therrien is not satisfied with his play, and is considering to bench him for next game. While this would be a very irritating development, it doesn't surprise me, as his style of play doesn't fit with Therrien's direct north-south play. In fact, Therrien has mentioned that he would like to see Eller embrace a more direct style of play, effectively neutering whatever natural flair he has. When will the Habs stop this poisonous policy of trying to mould all players into the same boring style of play as opposed to embracing diversity and nurturing young players' natural flair?

Eller's style of play is perfect for a puck possession player like Galchenyuk, but I doubt Therrien will have the foresight to play them together. Instead, I expect Galchenyuk to struggle to find chemistry with any of the players Therrien will put him with, and I would prefer to see him sent down instead of being forced to play a style of hockey which doesn't naturally suit him. Kostitsyn could have been another good player to play with Galchenyuk, but the Habs believe that players who don't naturally play a direct north-south game must be lazy, or dumb, or both. There is no room on the team for players who aren't like Cole and Gionta. There is no room for players who play a different style. There is no room for diversity. There is no room on the team for any flair.

I hope there is no truth to the rumours about Eller being benched next game. However, if it does prove to be true, things are shaping up for the upcoming season to provide us with some of the most boring hockey in the NHL today. But hey, at least our team will be hard working, right?

If I'm Alex Galchenyuk, I'm hoping to see Barkov or MacKinnon wearing a Habs sweater come draft time.